12 maio 2016

The " Brexit " process – possible consequences for Britain ?

FIRST: If the U.K. LEAVES the European Union:

(1) Britain will continue to be a major partner of  the world economy;

(2) Will continue to be the head of the Commonwealth;

(3) Will continue to be the principal allied of the United States, in the North Atlantic Area.

(4) London (the City) will continue to be one of the biggest financial markets of the world.

(5) The Pound will suffer a temporary devaluation, which can contribute for a far more competitiveness of the British industrial products on the world’s market and consequently larger earnings.

(6) Politically will suffer, in the short term, some hostility from the mainstream countries of the EU, namely from Germany and France. I don´t agree that for the long term the investment in the UK will go down. Perhaps in the short term period, due to the animosity of some European countries. 

(7) Britain will remain a nuclear power;

(8) Will remain as one of the five permanent members in the United Nations Council and in the NATO.

(9) Its geopolitical position is too strong to be discharged, in a long run.

Its economic relations with the world are too important for so many states and enterprises that cannot be put aside.

(10) Finally the internal market of the UK is too big to be ignored.
SECONDLY: If U.K. REMAINS in the European Union:

(1)  Britain will win with the fact that only the Rome Treaty applies to the country, due the negotiations made by Margaret Thatcher, in the 80’s and made by David Cameron more recently.

(2) In fact, with the result of those negotiations Britain is out of the main factors that can prejudice the UK, namely: the Monetary Union treaty, the Schengen treaty, and 90% of the rules established in the Maastricht treaty.

(3) It means that Britain will remain in a Cooperation community, but is out of the political obligations, out of the Federal community that is already in its beginning.

 That means that Britain will maintain its autonomy in the fields of the Foreign Affairs policy, Security and Defense matters and will be out of the Justice and Internal affairs integration.
IN CONCLUSION: no matter what the British people decides on the next 23th of June referendum the United Kingdom will remain an important player of the International System.

In one side, we can find the winners of this process: - The Banks and the financial sector, and their allies: a few of the Professors of Economy.

On the other hand, we can find the European industry, in particular, and the generality of the non-financial enterprises.

Due to the talking that I had in the past few years with my British Industrial Friends, I think that the British industry has nothing to gain in staying with the European Union, that publish rules, decisions, norms every month to justify their jobs in Brussels. 

Best regards
Miguel Mattos Chaves
PhD in European Studies

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